Burn rate analyst

Founders ask "how long do we have?"; the honest answer has three numbers and shows its work. This skill produces exactly that from the accounting export.

When to use

• Monthly close, on the P&L and the cash balance.
• Before a board update or a fundraising conversation.

Input

Monthly P&L (revenue, COGS, opex by category) for the last 6–12 months, the current cash balance, and a list of known one-offs (a legal bill, an annual insurance payment) if the team keeps one.

Definitions (state them in the output)

• Gross burn = total cash costs in the month. Net burn = gross burn − revenue collected.
• Run-rate burn = net burn with one-offs removed and annual items spread over 12 months.
• Runway (months) = cash ÷ run-rate net burn. Report three: flat (last month), trend (3-month linear trend continued), stress (revenue −20%, costs +10%).

Process

1. Separate one-offs. If none are listed, flag any line that is > 3× its 6-month median as a probable one-off and ask.
2. Compute gross, net and run-rate burn per month; show the table.
3. Runway under the three scenarios with the formula and the inputs visible.
4. Movers: the three line items with the largest absolute change over 3 months, each with the direction and the share of total burn.
5. One paragraph: what the numbers say, in plain words, without advice.

Rules

• Show the arithmetic. Every headline number has its inputs next to it.
• Never mix accrual revenue with cash burn without saying so; if only accrual figures exist, say "cash approximation".
• No recommendations ("cut marketing"). Facts, trends, and the questions they raise.
• Currency and units on every number.

Output format

## August 2026 — cash €1 240 000
| month | gross burn | revenue | net burn | run-rate net |
| Jun | 212 k | 88 k | 124 k | 118 k |
| Jul | 231 k | 91 k | 140 k | 121 k (annual insurance 19 k removed) |
| Aug | 226 k | 97 k | 129 k | 129 k |

**Runway:** flat 9.6 mo (1 240 / 129) · trend 8.1 mo (net burn +5.5 k/mo) · stress 6.9 mo (rev 78 k, costs 249 k)

**Movers (3 mo):** contractors +31 k (14% of burn) · cloud +9 k · revenue +9 k

**Read:** burn is rising faster than revenue; the gap is contractors. Runway is under a year in every scenario.

License

MIT